Tue, May 4, 2021·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 212 | 010 | 18 | 330 |
| CAR | 08 | 211 | 49 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:20CHIAlex DeBrincatSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.41 xG1–0
- P1 12:32CHIMike HardmanAssists: MacKenzie Entwistle, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–0
- P2 4:32CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Morgan Geekie, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 15:56CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 4:08CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Sebastian Aho · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 7:19CARTeuvo TeravainenGWGAssists: Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–4
- P3 11:52CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Patrick Kane, Ian Mitchell · Snap, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 17:23CARMartin NecasENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.60 xG3–5
- P3 18:29CARNino NiederreiterENAssists: Martin Necas, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:09CHIDylan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:42CARBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:21CARVincent Trocheck: Interference2 min
- P2 10:35CHIIan Mitchell: Holding2 min
- P2 11:10CHIConnor Murphy: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:19CARVincent Trocheck: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:19CHIVinnie Hinostroza: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:33CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKubalik – Hagel – Kampf6:02
xG 0.21–0.04 (83%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Entwistle – Hardman4:30
xG 0.15–0.07 (68%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Suter – Kurashev4:05
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hagel – Suter – Kurashev2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Stillman14:46
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Keith – Mitchell12:23
xG 0.61–0.64 (49%)attempts 8–11goals 1–2
- Zadorov – Kalynuk12:05
xG 0.46–0.65 (41%)attempts 10–13goals 0–2
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Svechnikov10:14
xG 0.64–0.29 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 3–0
- Niederreiter – Trocheck – Necas11:14
xG 0.53–0.46 (54%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1
- Staal – Fast – Foegele11:12
xG 0.14–0.39 (27%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- McCormick – Lorentz – Geekie6:34
xG 0.19–0.59 (25%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin12:13
xG 0.76–0.46 (62%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Skjei – Pesce14:54
xG 0.55–0.56 (49%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Bean10:35
xG 0.37–0.45 (46%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).