Mon, May 3, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 5, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 110 | 311 | 111 | 532 |
| VAN | 110 | 15 | 18 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 13:04VANNate SchmidtAssists: J.T. Miller, Nils Hoglander · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 0:18EDMTyson BarrieAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 16:33EDMConnor McDavidUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 17:16VANJ.T. MillerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–2
- P2 19:15EDMDominik KahunGWGAssists: Dmitry Kulikov, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 16:33VANBrock BoeserAssists: Bo Horvat · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 19:00EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Josh Archibald · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–3
Penalties (2)
- P2 1:51VANQuinn Hughes: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:02EDMJosh Archibald: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Yamamoto – Kahun13:49
xG 1.14–0.16 (88%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi15:07
xG 0.71–0.34 (68%)attempts 19–12goals 3–0
- Neal – Chiasson – Khaira5:43
xG 0.19–0.21 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Ennis – Archibald – McLeod5:18
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse17:52
xG 1.36–0.77 (64%)attempts 26–18goals 3–1
- Kulikov – Larsson18:22
xG 0.89–0.58 (60%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Bear – Jones12:06
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Hoglander13:07
xG 0.63–0.38 (62%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Boyd – Pearson – Lind2:20
xG 0.09–0.08 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Boyd – Vesey – MacEwen6:41
xG 0.07–0.19 (26%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Graovac – Hawryluk – Highmore6:15
xG 0.15–0.28 (35%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamonic – Hughes18:13
xG 0.61–0.75 (45%)attempts 12–16goals 0–2
- Myers – Juolevi12:16
xG 0.52–0.92 (36%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
- Edler – Schmidt17:14
xG 0.50–1.06 (32%)attempts 17–25goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).