Wed, May 5, 2021·Madison Square Garden, New York
Washington Capitals 4, New York Rangers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 011 | 314 | 110 | 435 |
| NYR | 011 | 03 | 27 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:12WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Brenden Dillon, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 8:26WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 14:48WSHNic DowdGWGAssists: John Carlson, Dmitry Orlov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 1:15NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Filip Chytil, Zac Jones · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 18:20WSHT.J. OshieENAssists: Carl Hagelin, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.56 xG4–1
- P3 18:44NYRMorgan BarronAssists: Zac Jones, Libor Hajek · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
Penalties (27)
- P1 0:01WSHNic Dowd: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:01WSHCarl Hagelin: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:01WSHGarnet Hathaway: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:01NYRColin Blackwell: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:01NYRPhillip Di Giuseppe: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:01NYRKevin Rooney: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:50NYRBrendan Smith: Instigator2 min
- P1 0:50NYRBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:50WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:50NYRBrendan Smith: Misconduct10 min
- P1 4:14NYRAnthony Bitetto: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:14WSHMichael Raffl: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:14NYRRyan Strome: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:14WSHLars Eller: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:24WSHCarl Hagelin: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:18WSHZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:56NYRPavel Buchnevich: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:56NYRKevin Rooney: Misconduct10 min
- P1 15:56WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
- P1 18:13NYRPavel Buchnevich: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:39WSHAnthony Mantha: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 4:39NYRPavel Buchnevich: Cross checking5 min · PPG
- P2 4:39NYRPavel Buchnevich: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 15:46WSHZdeno Chara: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:48NYRRyan Strome: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:48NYRRyan Strome: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:45NYRPhillip Di Giuseppe: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Rooney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Dowd – Hathaway7:21
xG 0.73–0.17 (81%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Backstrom – Raffl – Mantha4:37
xG 0.18–0.09 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – Carr2:26
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – Sheary3:47
xG 0.11–0.16 (42%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – Dillon3:52
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Dillon – van Riemsdyk8:13
xG 0.31–0.11 (74%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Chara – Jensen6:13
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestDi Giuseppe – Rooney – Barron2:38
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Chytil – Kakko – Lafrenière3:55
xG 0.17–0.13 (58%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Strome – Zibanejad – Kakko4:08
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Strome – Zibanejad – Buchnevich4:00
xG 0.02–0.09 (20%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Miller14:30
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Jones2:54
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Bitetto6:30
xG 0.09–0.40 (18%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).