Wed, May 5, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Nashville Predators 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 17 | 19 | 016 | 232 |
| CBJ | 010 | 29 | 28 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:22NSHTanner JeannotUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 2:08CBJJack RoslovicPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–1
- P2 17:53NSHCalle JarnkrokUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 19:09CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Mikko Lehtonen, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 13:50CBJMikhail GrigorenkoGWGAssists: Vladislav Gavrikov, Mikko Lehtonen · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 19:59CBJOliver BjorkstrandENAssists: Max Domi, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:27NSHAlexandre Carrier: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:14NSHJuuse Saros: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 0:56CBJVladislav Gavrikov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Trenin – Jeannot10:40
xG 1.10–0.12 (90%)attempts 16–3goals 1–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Tolvanen10:27
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Richardson – Haula – Forsberg2:18
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Richardson – Duchene – Haula8:14
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Fabbro10:39
xG 0.63–0.28 (69%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Carrier15:35
xG 0.78–0.44 (64%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Josi – Carrier2:40
xG 0.23–0.06 (79%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Bjorkstrand – Domi13:35
xG 0.80–0.29 (74%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
- Gerbe – MacInnis – Robinson8:13
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Grigorenko – Roslovic – Bemstrom12:56
xG 0.31–0.67 (32%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Stenlund – Laine – Foudy8:53
xG 0.14–0.86 (14%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Jones19:05
xG 0.78–0.59 (57%)attempts 9–19goals 0–1
- Gavrikov – Lehtonen18:27
xG 0.68–0.78 (47%)attempts 18–17goals 2–1
- Kukan – Bayreuther13:14
xG 0.32–0.89 (26%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).