Wed, May 5, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 3, St. Louis Blues 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 18 | 116 | 02 | 1 | 335 |
| STL | 111 | 07 | 16 | 02 | 0 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:52STLMike HoffmanPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 12:57ANAMax JonesAssists: Sam Carrick, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 2:15ANAHaydn FleuryAssists: Troy Terry, Trevor Zegras · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 5:29STLKyle CliffordAssists: Ivan Barbashev · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. STL David Perron stopped
- 2. ANA Trevor Zegras stopped
- 3. STL Brayden Schenn stopped
- 4. ANA Troy Terry scored
- 5. STL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:46STLMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:55STLNiko Mikkola: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:55ANAMaxime Comtois: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 11:13ANAMax Jones: Holding2 min
- P1 13:33ANATrevor Zegras: Elbowing2 min
- P2 16:52ANAKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:32STLKyle Clifford: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Barbashev
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Deslauriers – Steel6:36
xG 0.93–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Terry – Comtois – Zegras10:42
xG 0.47–0.03 (93%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Rakell – Heinen8:34
xG 0.30–0.26 (54%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Carrick – Jones – Lundeström5:22
xG 0.17–0.19 (47%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Benoit16:14
xG 1.26–0.32 (80%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Fleury – Drysdale14:49
xG 0.71–0.32 (69%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Fowler – Larsson15:32
xG 0.37–0.69 (35%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Kyrou – Thomas11:27
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Clifford – MacEachern – Barbashev8:01
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Bozak – Schenn – Schwartz2:56
xG 0.03–0.15 (16%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Sanford3:21
xG 0.02–0.19 (7%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Parayko2:04
xG 0.25–0.00 (99%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Parayko2:14
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Bortuzzo – Walman6:28
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).