Wed, May 5, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vegas Golden Knights 3, Minnesota Wild 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 08 | 112 | 112 | 12 | 334 |
| MIN | 010 | 08 | 29 | 01 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:30VGKChandler StephensonAssists: Mattias Janmark · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P3 11:13MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Ryan Hartman · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 13:23MINKirill KaprizovAssists: Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 15:44VGKReilly SmithPPAssists: William Karlsson, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 1:53VGKAlex PietrangeloGWGAssists: Alex Tuch, Jonathan Marchessault · Slap, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:44MINCarson Soucy: High sticking2 min
- P1 6:23VGKZach Whitecloud: Interference2 min
- P1 9:44VGKNicolas Hague: Boarding2 min
- P1 9:44MINMarcus Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:44MINKirill Kaprizov: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:44VGKZach Whitecloud: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:44VGKZach Whitecloud: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:55VGKNicolas Hague: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:55MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:27VGKPeyton Krebs: Bench2 min
- P1 19:23VGKBrayden McNabb: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:23MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:35MINMarcus Foligno: Holding2 min
- P3 13:45MINMats Zuccarello: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stephenson won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Kolesar – Roy2:07
xG 0.26–0.02 (93%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Tuch – Roy – Krebs7:39
xG 0.40–0.21 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Stone – Stephenson – Janmark12:38
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault10:27
xG 0.31–0.24 (56%)attempts 13–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Theodore15:43
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo16:51
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Hague – Whitecloud9:57
xG 0.31–0.41 (44%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov10:39
xG 0.30–0.21 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 2–1
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek10:53
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Parise – Bjugstad – Sturm4:38
xG 0.07–0.17 (28%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Bonino – Johansson – Rask7:59
xG 0.24–0.53 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Suter – Spurgeon17:21
xG 0.28–0.35 (45%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
- Cole – Soucy10:50
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba16:00
xG 0.21–0.76 (21%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).