Wed, May 5, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 2, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 010 | 216 | 06 | 232 |
| SJS | 012 | 19 | 212 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:39COLTyson JostAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Jacob MacDonald · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–0
- P2 18:18COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Nazem Kadri, Conor Timmins · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 19:47SJSTomas HertlAssists: Evander Kane, Alexander Barabanov · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 2:50SJSTomas HertlAssists: Evander Kane, Nikolai Knyzhov · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 9:18SJSErik KarlssonPPGWGAssists: Evander Kane, Tomas Hertl · Slap, 0.09 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:04COLRyan Graves: Interference2 min
- P1 7:10SJSKevin Labanc: Holding2 min
- P1 15:41COLNathan MacKinnon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 11:06SJSMario Ferraro: Holding2 min
- P3 7:36COLGabriel Landeskog: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:17COLAndre Burakovsky: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Newhook11:38
xG 0.73–0.65 (53%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Soderberg – Compher – Bellemare6:43
xG 0.12–0.12 (49%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:07
xG 0.74–0.88 (46%)attempts 23–8goals 0–2
- Donskoi – Nichushkin – Jost7:15
xG 0.50–0.77 (40%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – MacDonald8:20
xG 0.41–0.08 (84%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Graves – Timmins10:44
xG 0.71–0.58 (55%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Timmins3:16
xG 0.04–0.06 (36%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Meier – Balcers10:41
xG 0.86–0.50 (64%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
- Marleau – Chmelevski – True7:00
xG 0.28–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kane – Hertl – Barabanov11:38
xG 0.85–0.83 (50%)attempts 8–20goals 2–1
- Labanc – Gregor – Gambrell10:11
xG 0.44–0.59 (43%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Vlasic2:11
xG 0.67–0.07 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 1–1
- Vlasic – Meloche7:03
xG 0.30–0.06 (85%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Knyzhov12:43
xG 0.66–0.80 (45%)attempts 6–24goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).