Thu, May 6, 2021·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New Jersey Devils 2, New York Islanders 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 112 | 18 | 05 | 225 |
| NYI | 08 | 112 | 013 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:11NJDPavel ZachaAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 5:35NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Scott Mayfield, Brock Nelson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 15:31NJDMichael McLeodGWGAssists: Damon Severson, Ryan Murray · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
Penalties (3)
- P2 5:49NYIBraydon Coburn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:22NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00NJDMichael McLeod: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against McLeod
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestStudenic – Foote – Thompson8:13
xG 0.15–0.06 (72%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Bastian – McLeod – Boqvist11:57
xG 0.42–0.47 (47%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Kuokkanen – Sharangovich – Hughes12:41
xG 0.33–0.58 (36%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
- Zacha – Bratt – Hischier11:01
xG 0.31–0.66 (32%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Tennyson – Bahl13:24
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Carrick – Butcher14:53
xG 0.43–0.58 (43%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Murray – Severson15:18
xG 0.52–0.72 (42%)attempts 17–14goals 2–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Nelson – Beauvillier9:49
xG 0.96–0.41 (70%)attempts 17–8goals 1–1
- Pageau – Barzal – Wahlstrom4:19
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Johnston2:47
xG 0.08–0.04 (68%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Barzal8:32
xG 0.22–0.22 (50%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock16:53
xG 0.84–0.32 (72%)attempts 27–12goals 0–0
- Leddy – Mayfield16:26
xG 0.48–0.58 (45%)attempts 11–14goals 1–2
- Coburn – Dobson15:34
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).