Mon, May 10, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 0, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 012 | 010 | 030 |
| FLA | 19 | 17 | 214 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:19FLAMacKenzie WeegarGWGAssists: Mason Marchment, Juho Lammikko · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 8:23FLAJuho LammikkoSHUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 2:27FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Anthony Duclair, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 14:07FLAAlexander WennbergAssists: Radko Gudas, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:51FLACarter Verhaeghe: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 3:05TBLMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min
- P1 6:42FLARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:11FLAFrank Vatrano: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:11TBLJan Rutta: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:29FLAKeith Yandle: Holding2 min
- P2 10:08TBLGemel Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:42TBLJan Rutta: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:42TBLJan Rutta: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:42TBLDaniel Walcott: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:42FLAKevin Connauton: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:42FLAMason Marchment: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:58FLARyan Lomberg: Interference2 min
- P3 9:09TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P3 15:01TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Smith won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Gourde – Colton6:06
xG 0.36–0.02 (95%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Point – Cirelli4:55
xG 0.44–0.11 (81%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Smith – Walcott – Stephens3:10
xG 0.06–0.04 (58%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Stephens – Barré-Boulet3:28
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Claesson10:50
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Cernak – Sergachev11:18
xG 0.76–0.61 (55%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
- Savard – Rutta10:26
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov7:53
xG 0.45–0.33 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Lammikko – Lomberg – Denisenko2:40
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lammikko – Lomberg – Heponiemi2:05
xG 0.02–0.06 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Marchment – Tippett – Denisenko5:32
xG 0.01–0.11 (9%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Gudas5:05
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Connauton – Gudas3:44
xG 0.39–0.33 (54%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Weegar – Forsling6:21
xG 0.19–0.24 (45%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).