Tue, May 4, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Edmonton Oilers 4, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 07 | 314 | 16 | 427 |
| VAN | 16 | 06 | 017 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:34VANBrock BoeserAssists: Nils Hoglander, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P2 14:29EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 17:25EDMLeon DraisaitlPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Tyson Barrie · Snap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 19:13EDMEvan BouchardPPAssists: Darnell Nurse, Dominik Kahun · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 14:53EDMDarnell NurseAssists: Josh Archibald, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P2 16:44EDMWilliam Lagesson: Interference2 min
- P2 16:54VANTanner Pearson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:15VANJ.T. Miller: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 1:44EDMAdam Larsson: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:25VANJayce Hawryluk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:06EDMAdam Larsson: Elbowing2 min
- P3 17:36EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Yamamoto – Kahun11:22
xG 0.54–0.38 (59%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Archibald – Khaira8:54
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Turris – Ennis – McLeod8:20
xG 0.12–0.07 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi14:49
xG 0.72–0.71 (51%)attempts 17–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Nurse15:21
xG 0.68–0.57 (54%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Kulikov – Larsson14:43
xG 0.19–0.13 (60%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Larsson – Bouchard2:00
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Boeser – Hoglander12:28
xG 0.85–0.65 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 1–2
- Pearson – Horvat – Lind7:39
xG 0.21–0.07 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Boyd – Vesey – MacEwen8:43
xG 0.15–0.06 (73%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Highmore2:49
xG 0.06–0.08 (43%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Schmidt2:18
xG 0.40–0.06 (87%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Myers – Hughes2:11
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Myers – Rathbone11:25
xG 0.60–0.59 (50%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).