Mon, May 10, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Carolina Hurricanes 0, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 010 | 010 | 010 | 030 |
| NSH | 212 | 210 | 15 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:51NSHRocco GrimaldiSHGWGAssists: Tanner Jeannot · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 4:29NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Yakov Trenin, Ryan Johansen · Backhand, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 4:19NSHMatt DucheneAssists: Brad Richardson, Nick Cousins · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 12:08NSHRyan JohansenPPAssists: Filip Forsberg, Dante Fabbro · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–4
- P3 0:57NSHTanner JeannotSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 1:58NSHTyler Lewington: Cross checking2 min
- P1 5:59CARMax McCormick: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:38NSHYakov Trenin: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:56NSHTyler Lewington: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:56CARMax McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:08NSHMathieu Olivier: Elbowing2 min
- P2 11:09CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:12CARJordan Martinook: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:45CARVincent Trocheck: Elbowing2 min
- P2 0:00NSHMatt Benning: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00NSHErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00NSHErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00CARMorgan Geekie: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00CARNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Richardson won the faceoff against Lorentz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestFast – Martinook – Lorentz8:06
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Foegele – Aho5:07
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Shore – McCormick – Geekie8:17
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Trocheck – Necas7:28
xG 0.16–0.74 (18%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Skjei – Bean5:02
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Keane8:14
xG 0.27–0.34 (44%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Ryan – Keane6:14
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Cousins – Olivier10:24
xG 0.81–0.59 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- McCarron – Trenin – Jeannot7:42
xG 0.27–0.10 (73%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Grimaldi – Pitlick – Tolvanen7:44
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Duchene – Johansen – Forsberg9:01
xG 0.20–0.21 (48%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFabbro – Davies4:44
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Lewington – Davies10:18
xG 0.80–0.35 (70%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Fabbro – Farrance11:33
xG 0.69–0.65 (52%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).