Thu, May 6, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 09 | 15 | 17 | 221 |
| TOR | 415 | 010 | 110 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:16TORAlex GalchenyukAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 3:24TORJohn TavaresAssists: Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–2
- P1 10:38TORPierre EngvallGWGAssists: Jason Spezza, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–3
- P1 17:21TORMitch MarnerAssists: Joe Thornton, Rasmus Sandin · Backhand, 0.17 xG0–4
- P2 13:30MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Corey Perry, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 3:04MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Jeff Petry · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 15:41TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, Jake Muzzin · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:18MTLJake Evans: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:47TORPierre Engvall: Interference2 min
- P2 9:45MTLJoel Edmundson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:02TORTJ Brodie: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:55TORAlex Galchenyuk: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:25MTLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:25MTLCole Caufield: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Anderson – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi6:41
xG 0.22–0.18 (55%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Staal – Perry – Caufield5:51
xG 0.40–0.62 (39%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Tatar – Anderson – Kotkaniemi3:22
xG 0.15–0.41 (27%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Armia – Suzuki9:40
xG 0.14–0.42 (24%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Petry – Edmundson13:24
xG 1.11–1.08 (51%)attempts 19–14goals 1–2
- Merrill – Romanov12:44
xG 0.53–0.60 (47%)attempts 6–11goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Kulak12:08
xG 0.15–1.09 (12%)attempts 7–13goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marner – Matthews11:07
xG 0.76–0.16 (83%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Tavares – Galchenyuk – Nylander9:29
xG 0.86–0.32 (73%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
- Spezza – Simmonds – Engvall6:22
xG 0.76–0.54 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Noesen – Kerfoot – Mikheyev7:15
xG 0.59–0.66 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl17:47
xG 1.21–0.49 (71%)attempts 19–12goals 2–0
- Brodie – Rielly13:05
xG 1.23–0.58 (68%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Brodie – Sandin2:22
xG 0.08–0.10 (43%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).