Mon, Apr 5, 2021·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Ottawa Senators 3, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 08 | 16 | 29 | 323 |
| WPG | 114 | 322 | 010 | 446 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:10WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Blake Wheeler, Logan Stanley · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 4:19WPGAdam LowryAssists: Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 4:48OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 8:38WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Andrew Copp, Nikolaj Ehlers · Slap, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 16:12WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 10:25OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 16:51OTTConnor BrownAssists: Artem Anisimov, Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:15WPGMathieu Perreault: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 7:56WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:50WPGPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:39OTTBrady Tkachuk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 11:16OTTConnor Brown: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:50OTTBrady Tkachuk: Elbowing2 min
- P3 8:31WPGLogan Stanley: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk2:39
xG 0.22–0.03 (89%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Paul – Norris – Tkachuk7:02
xG 0.09–0.16 (35%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Dzingel – Brown – Bishop8:47
xG 0.20–0.47 (30%)attempts 6–15goals 1–0
- Tierney – Batherson – Stützle7:09
xG 0.29–0.62 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Chabot2:01
xG 0.13–0.03 (79%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Brown – Chabot2:19
xG 0.00–0.12 (3%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
- Chabot – Zaitsev13:42
xG 0.55–0.87 (39%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stastny – Dubois9:58
xG 0.80–0.40 (66%)attempts 17–8goals 1–2
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Connor13:00
xG 0.76–0.40 (65%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Lowry – Copp – Appleton9:18
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Thompson – Lewis – Perreault5:52
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPoolman – Morrissey11:34
xG 0.92–0.50 (65%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Stanley14:02
xG 0.62–0.37 (63%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Forbort – Pionk13:30
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).