Sat, Apr 10, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Edmonton Oilers 0, Calgary Flames 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 07 | 07 | 03 | 017 |
| CGY | 010 | 410 | 112 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:12CGYSean MonahanGWGAssists: Andrew Mangiapane · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 10:43CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Noah Hanifin, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 13:21CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 19:25CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Mikael Backlund, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–4
- P3 13:30CGYBrett RitchieAssists: Sam Bennett, Juuso Välimäki · Backhand, 0.03 xG0–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 4:55EDMZack Kassian: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:28EDMKailer Yamamoto: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 14:05CGYMikael Backlund: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:23EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:03CGYMichael Stone: Interference2 min
- P3 18:38EDMDarnell Nurse: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – McDavid – Yamamoto5:40
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Ennis – Archibald – Khaira3:08
xG 0.13–0.09 (60%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Neal – Kassian – Shore3:30
xG 0.03–0.01 (73%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Neal – Kassian – Haas4:53
xG 0.12–0.12 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Barrie – Nurse16:26
xG 0.58–0.56 (51%)attempts 21–8goals 0–2
- Bear – Jones11:51
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
- Russell – Larsson16:51
xG 0.23–0.85 (21%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestRitchie – Bennett – Ryan8:40
xG 0.53–0.09 (86%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Lucic – Backlund – Nordstrom10:33
xG 0.59–0.17 (78%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Monahan – Mangiapane – Dube7:13
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk10:07
xG 0.06–0.49 (11%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Andersson15:52
xG 0.88–0.16 (85%)attempts 23–9goals 2–0
- Giordano – Tanev15:30
xG 0.75–0.36 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hanifin2:03
xG 0.09–0.12 (44%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).