Sat, May 8, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
New York Rangers 5, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 07 | 15 | 411 | 523 |
| BOS | 09 | 119 | 311 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:21NYRK'Andre MillerAssists: Justin Richards, Filip Chytil · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 18:12BOSNick RitchieAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 0:21BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Brad Marchand · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 5:22NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Ryan Strome · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 7:26NYRAlexis LafrenièreAssists: Anthony Bitetto, Pavel Buchnevich · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 9:36NYRVitali KravtsovAssists: Ryan Strome, Zac Jones · Snap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 14:08BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: David Krejci · Backhand, 0.15 xG4–3
- P3 18:07NYRMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–3
- P3 18:39BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:54BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Holding2 min
- P1 19:32NYRMorgan Barron: Kneeing2 min
- P2 14:04NYRMika Zibanejad: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:17NYRAnthony Bitetto: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Buchnevich – Lafrenière13:10
xG 0.87–0.45 (66%)attempts 11–15goals 2–1
- Chytil – Barron – Richards7:32
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Di Giuseppe – Rooney – Gettinger7:43
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Strome – Kravtsov11:54
xG 0.13–0.88 (13%)attempts 4–20goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Fox – Miller16:22
xG 0.96–1.05 (48%)attempts 15–28goals 3–2
- Hajek – Jones15:00
xG 0.13–0.44 (23%)attempts 3–14goals 1–0
- Bitetto – Reunanen14:07
xG 0.27–0.81 (25%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Ritchie – DeBrusk11:23
xG 1.05–0.34 (76%)attempts 18–9goals 1–2
- Krejci – Smith – Hall12:54
xG 0.69–0.12 (86%)attempts 16–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak13:15
xG 0.78–0.67 (54%)attempts 23–7goals 2–1
- Lazar – Frederic – Kuhlman8:28
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Carlo16:08
xG 0.99–0.23 (81%)attempts 27–6goals 0–2
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy16:57
xG 0.95–0.27 (78%)attempts 22–4goals 3–0
- Miller – Lauzon13:12
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).