Sat, May 8, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Washington Capitals 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 012 | 17 | 02 | 129 |
| WSH | 013 | 06 | 118 | 13 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 3:42PHIScott LaughtonAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 19:20WSHLars EllerAssists: Anthony Mantha, Justin Schultz · Slap, 0.06 xG1–1
- OT 4:00WSHConor ShearyGWGAssists: Nic Dowd, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–2
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:00PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
- P1 1:00PHIIvan Provorov: Abuse of officials2 min
- P1 1:20WSHTom Wilson: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:27WSHNic Dowd: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:30PHIIvan Provorov: Interference2 min
- P3 6:57PHIPhilippe Myers: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:57WSHDaniel Sprong: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:57PHISamuel Morin: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:57WSHGarnet Hathaway: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 10:07WSHAnthony Mantha: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:07PHIJoel Farabee: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 13:19WSHBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:11PHIJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eller won the faceoff against Laughton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny7:24
xG 0.19–0.02 (91%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Lindblom – Allison – Patrick5:30
xG 0.02–0.09 (21%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Aube-Kubel6:52
xG 0.16–0.30 (34%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Voracek – Hayes – Farabee8:25
xG 0.11–0.68 (13%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – York10:53
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Myers – York2:26
xG 0.05–0.04 (58%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov12:57
xG 0.13–0.90 (13%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Mantha – Sheary3:19
xG 0.18–0.03 (86%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Eller – Wilson – Sheary4:11
xG 0.18–0.07 (73%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Eller – Raffl – Pilon3:22
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Eller – Sheary – Pilon2:31
xG 0.04–0.02 (62%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Jensen10:35
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Dillon – van Riemsdyk14:45
xG 0.69–0.55 (55%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Schultz – Orlov12:41
xG 0.28–0.33 (46%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).