Sat, May 8, 2021·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Florida Panthers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 013 | 114 | 02 | 129 |
| FLA | 114 | 311 | 110 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:44FLAAlexander WennbergAssists: Gustav Forsling, MacKenzie Weegar · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 3:07FLASam BennettPPGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 4:52TBLLuke SchennAssists: Yanni Gourde, Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 12:54FLAAlexander WennbergAssists: Frank Vatrano · Wrap-around, 0.28 xG1–3
- P2 14:53FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Sam Bennett · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 13:38FLAAlexander WennbergAssists: Owen Tippett, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–5
Penalties (31)
- P1 15:25FLARyan Lomberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:41TBLFredrik Claesson: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:21TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:17FLARyan Lomberg: Instigator2 min
- P2 6:17FLARyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:17FLARyan Lomberg: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 6:17TBLLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:41TBLOndrej Palat: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:12FLAFrank Vatrano: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00FLABrandon Montour: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00FLASam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:58TBLLuke Schenn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:56TBLBlake Coleman: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:56FLAKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:58FLASam Bennett: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:58TBLFredrik Claesson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:58TBLRoss Colton: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:58TBLRoss Colton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:58FLABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:58TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:58TBLPatrick Maroon: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:58FLABrandon Montour: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:58TBLYanni Gourde: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:58FLARyan Lomberg: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:17TBLBarclay Goodrow: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:17TBLBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:17FLANoel Acciari: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:17TBLLuke Schenn: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:17FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:42FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Palat – Point8:15
xG 0.24–0.17 (58%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Johnson – Joseph – Stephens5:15
xG 0.08–0.16 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde4:58
xG 0.26–0.36 (41%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Killorn – Cirelli – Colton6:57
xG 0.19–0.37 (34%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Sergachev2:25
xG 0.18–0.02 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cernak – Sergachev8:14
xG 0.36–0.27 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Schenn – Thomas10:43
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWennberg – Vatrano – Heponiemi6:41
xG 0.41–0.09 (82%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Bennett – Tippett5:33
xG 0.33–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Gusev – Acciari – Lomberg3:16
xG 0.42–0.13 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Duclair – Barkov – Marchment6:05
xG 0.13–0.36 (26%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontour – Nutivaara9:13
xG 0.69–0.20 (78%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Yandle – Gudas7:27
xG 0.63–0.38 (63%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Gudas – Forsling2:13
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).