Sat, May 8, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Detroit Red Wings 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 111 | 216 | 04 | 437 |
| CBJ | 111 | 111 | 210 | 14 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:40DETJakub VranaAssists: Dennis Cholowski, Richard Panik · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 10:16CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Patrik Laine, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 11:55DETDanny DeKeyserAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Evgeny Svechnikov · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 13:15CBJOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Eric Robinson, Gabriel Carlsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 6:43CBJEric RobinsonSHAssists: Nathan Gerbe · Slap, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 8:04DETSam GagnerPPAssists: Filip Hronek, Christian Djoos · Wrist, 0.42 xG3–3
- P3 14:45CBJJack RoslovicAssists: Seth Jones, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 16:18DETValtteri FilppulaAssists: Dennis Cholowski, Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–4
- OT 4:39CBJMax DomiGWGAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–5
Penalties (1)
- P3 6:05CBJMax Domi: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestFilppula – Panik – Vrana13:57
xG 0.88–0.45 (66%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
- Gagner – Namestnikov – Svechnikov7:44
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Gagner – Rasmussen – Zadina4:34
xG 0.34–0.29 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Helm – Glendening – Brome14:46
xG 0.32–0.42 (43%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDjoos – Lindstrom6:56
xG 0.58–0.08 (87%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Cholowski – Stecher3:49
xG 0.56–0.25 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Djoos – Hronek3:11
xG 0.28–0.07 (81%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Roslovic – Laine14:31
xG 0.69–0.34 (67%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
- Gerbe – Matteau – MacInnis9:11
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Grigorenko – Bemstrom – Foudy13:25
xG 0.30–0.56 (35%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Bjorkstrand – Domi – Robinson15:41
xG 0.78–1.10 (41%)attempts 18–18goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestHarrington – Carlsson14:39
xG 0.45–0.25 (64%)attempts 14–9goals 1–2
- Del Zotto – Jones20:27
xG 0.87–0.89 (50%)attempts 21–19goals 2–0
- Gavrikov – Peeke18:16
xG 0.60–1.01 (37%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).