Sat, May 8, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 08 | 17 | 122 |
| NSH | 09 | 111 | 210 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:27NSHLuke KuninAssists: Mikael Granlund, Mattias Ekholm · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 7:41NSHLuke KuninGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P3 9:07CARMorgan GeekieAssists: Steven Lorentz, Max McCormick · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 18:57NSHErik HaulaENAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.53 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:01CARWarren Foegele: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:42CARAndrei Svechnikov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:58NSHYakov Trenin: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:34CARVincent Trocheck: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Trocheck – Necas8:51
xG 0.26–0.03 (89%)attempts 13–1goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov10:54
xG 0.54–0.40 (57%)attempts 14–7goals 0–2
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast2:12
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Foegele10:12
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Slavin4:07
xG 0.24–0.08 (74%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Hakanpää – Pesce3:37
xG 0.12–0.03 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pesce – Bean5:51
xG 0.35–0.27 (57%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSissons – Trenin – Jeannot13:00
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Richardson – Duchene – Haula7:30
xG 0.31–0.21 (59%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Granlund – Kunin9:45
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 2–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Tolvanen11:49
xG 0.19–0.36 (35%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Carrier14:58
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Benning – Harpur13:20
xG 0.37–0.25 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Josi – Benning2:10
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).