Tue, May 18, 2021·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 2, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 010 | 222 | 240 |
| VAN | 28 | 07 | 29 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:43VANTravis HamonicAssists: Tyler Graovac, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 19:11VANNils HoglanderAssists: Tyler Myers, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P3 9:28VANTyler MyersGWGAssists: Brock Boeser, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 16:38CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Milan Lucic, Adam Ruzicka · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 19:00CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–3
- P3 19:41VANBrock BoeserENAssists: Travis Hamonic · Backhand, 0.53 xG2–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:45VANTravis Hamonic: Holding2 min
- P2 7:46CGYNikita Nesterov: Holding2 min
- P2 10:29CGYConnor Mackey: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:29VANBo Horvat: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:51CGYBrett Ritchie: Interference2 min
- P2 17:03VANAlexander Edler: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:32VANWilliam Lockwood: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:45CGYDerek Ryan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Nordstrom – Mangiapane9:04
xG 0.34–0.09 (79%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Lucic – Ryan – Dube7:41
xG 0.53–0.41 (56%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:30
xG 0.44–0.52 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Ritchie – Simon – Ruzicka4:40
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Tanev13:06
xG 0.92–0.01 (99%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Nesterov – Andersson13:09
xG 0.66–0.64 (51%)attempts 14–13goals 0–3
- Giordano – Andersson2:13
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGraovac – Hawryluk – Michaelis5:58
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Boyd – Vesey – Lockwood9:12
xG 0.12–0.22 (35%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Pearson – Horvat – Highmore8:46
xG 0.06–0.34 (16%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Hoglander10:38
xG 0.22–0.67 (25%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Edler – Hamonic2:02
xG 0.03–0.08 (24%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Myers – Rathbone13:32
xG 0.60–0.66 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Edler – Schmidt12:38
xG 0.18–0.59 (24%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).