Sat, May 8, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Anaheim Ducks 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 15 | 03 | 212 | 02 | 322 |
| MIN | 112 | 27 | 04 | 12 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:02ANARickard RakellAssists: Josh Mahura, Josh Manson · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:32MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 15:05MINRyan HartmanAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P2 15:56MINNick BoninoAssists: Nico Sturm · Slap, 0.16 xG1–3
- P3 2:18ANATrevor ZegrasAssists: Maxime Comtois, Jamie Drysdale · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P3 19:34ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Rickard Rakell, Troy Terry · Snap, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 2:46MINVictor RaskGWGAssists: Mathew Dumba, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:50ANATroy Terry: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 5:22ANARyan Getzlaf: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:38ANASimon Benoit: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:37MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:12MINIan Cole: Playing without a helmet2 min
- P3 12:12ANAMax Jones: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zegras won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Rakell – Heinen – Lundeström9:44
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Carrick – Steel – Jones6:04
xG 0.10–0.26 (28%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Deslauriers – Volkov7:00
xG 0.17–0.41 (29%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Terry – Comtois – Zegras11:39
xG 0.18–0.57 (24%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Mahura – Drysdale3:44
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Manson – Mahura11:39
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 2–0
- Larsson – Benoit12:18
xG 0.20–0.33 (37%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov11:01
xG 0.50–0.18 (74%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Bonino – Bjugstad – Sturm9:05
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Foligno – Greenway – Eriksson Ek12:35
xG 0.29–0.06 (83%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Johansson – Rask – Fiala7:29
xG 0.05–0.07 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba18:07
xG 1.04–0.14 (88%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Suter – Spurgeon11:32
xG 0.67–0.20 (77%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Cole – Soucy14:07
xG 0.13–0.20 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).