Wed, Oct 13, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
New York Rangers 1, Washington Capitals 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 09 | 05 | 110 | 124 |
| WSH | 16 | 215 | 26 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:39WSHT.J. OshiePPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 12:38WSHJustin SchultzPPGWGAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 13:02WSHHendrix LapierreAssists: T.J. Oshie, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 2:37WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Anthony Mantha, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 9:13NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Ryan Strome, Adam Fox · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 12:01WSHAlex OvechkinSHAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–5
Penalties (17)
- P1 1:52WSHHendrix Lapierre: High sticking2 min
- P1 1:52NYRSammy Blais: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:52WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:52NYRSammy Blais: Roughing2 min
- P1 1:52WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P1 3:55NYRPatrik Nemeth: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 18:56NYRChris Kreider: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:59WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:29NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:36WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:53NYRJacob Trouba: Holding2 min
- P3 2:20NYRSammy Blais: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:53WSHLars Eller: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:53NYRRyan Lindgren: Holding2 min
- P3 8:27WSHDmitry Orlov: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:57NYRBarclay Goodrow: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:05WSHT.J. Oshie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Lafrenière8:45
xG 0.22–0.24 (48%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Blais – Chytil7:00
xG 0.08–0.15 (34%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Reaves – Hunt – Rooney7:50
xG 0.09–0.18 (33%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Strome – Panarin – Kakko9:58
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Nemeth – Tinordi10:53
xG 0.32–0.40 (44%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Fox – Lindgren11:01
xG 0.16–0.25 (38%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller13:12
xG 0.16–0.44 (27%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Mantha – Sprong9:28
xG 0.42–0.06 (88%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway7:58
xG 0.39–0.17 (69%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Oshie – Sheary – Lapierre7:35
xG 0.07–0.22 (24%)attempts 2–10goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson10:44
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – van Riemsdyk12:04
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry9:33
xG 0.28–0.21 (57%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen14:04
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).