Wed, Oct 13, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 18 | 013 | 113 | 234 |
| COL | 318 | 19 | 09 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:26COLJack JohnsonAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Valeri Nichushkin · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 5:48COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nazem Kadri, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 9:34COLBowen ByramGWGAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P1 16:47CHIDominik KubalikPPAssists: Ian Mitchell, Henrik Borgstrom · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 16:12COLNazem KadriAssists: Bowen Byram, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 15:31CHIConnor MurphyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 15:30COLJ.T. Compher: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:34CHITyler Johnson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 0:00CHIRiley Stillman: Roughing2 min
- P1 0:00COLLogan O'Connor: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:08COLGabriel Landeskog: Holding2 min
- P2 9:31CHIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:06COLJ.T. Compher: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:53CHIBrandon Hagel: Holding2 min
- P3 5:06CHITyler Johnson: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:26COLGabriel Landeskog: Boarding2 min
- P3 16:26CHITyler Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:26COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Khaira – Carpenter2:08
xG 0.12–0.04 (77%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Borgstrom – Hagel2:57
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Kubalik – Kurashev8:38
xG 0.10–0.31 (25%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Borgstrom – Hagel – Dach4:39
xG 0.09–0.39 (18%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McCabe – Jones2:27
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Stillman – Mitchell3:41
xG 0.06–0.05 (57%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- de Haan – Mitchell4:26
xG 0.09–0.08 (52%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Landeskog – Rantanen12:43
xG 0.99–0.23 (81%)attempts 21–10goals 2–0
- Burakovsky – Compher – Nichushkin8:20
xG 0.86–0.28 (75%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Jost – Ranta – Newhook7:21
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Helm – Megna – O'Connor6:03
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Byram9:51
xG 0.94–0.12 (89%)attempts 20–5goals 2–0
- Johnson – Murray10:29
xG 0.67–0.11 (86%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Girard – Makar12:37
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).