Thu, Oct 14, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 1, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 010 | 111 | 010 | 131 |
| BUF | 210 | 215 | 111 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:40BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Jacob Bryson, Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 17:35BUFZemgus GirgensonsGWGAssists: Colin Miller, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 9:33MTLChris WidemanAssists: Joel Armia, Mathieu Perreault · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 17:05BUFVictor OlofssonPPAssists: Jacob Bryson, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P2 19:04BUFAnders BjorkAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Vinnie Hinostroza · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 4:29BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:24MTLCedric Paquette: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:27BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
- P1 18:07MTLChris Wideman: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:47BUFHenri Jokiharju: Holding2 min
- P2 4:21BUFCody Eakin: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:24MTLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:41MTLJosh Anderson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:54MTLBen Chiarot: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:29BUFRobert Hagg: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:25MTLBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Toffoli – Suzuki – Caufield3:21
xG 0.01–0.02 (23%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Armia – Paquette – Lehkonen4:04
xG 0.15–0.21 (42%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Perreault – Toffoli – Suzuki4:29
xG 0.05–0.12 (28%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Armia – Evans2:10
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Savard – Chiarot12:15
xG 0.37–0.34 (52%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Wideman – Romanov5:59
xG 0.04–0.07 (39%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Wideman – Kulak5:29
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Eakin – Girgensons3:58
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Skinner – Hinostroza – Cozens4:40
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Bjork – Caggiula – Cozens3:06
xG 0.12–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Skinner – Hinostroza – Mittelstadt6:39
xG 0.25–0.18 (57%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Hagg15:17
xG 0.89–0.23 (80%)attempts 18–11goals 0–1
- Miller – Bryson13:34
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin12:11
xG 0.17–0.29 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).