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Ice Lab

Thu, Oct 14, 2021·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise

Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Florida Panthers 5 (OT)

Away

Pittsburgh Penguins

4

Final

Overtime

Home

Florida Panthers

5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.

FLA winsPIT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTTotal
PIT0921722001447
FLA11211021512539

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 9:17FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P2 3:57FLAAnthony DuclairAssists: Frank Vatrano, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
  3. P2 11:45PITDanton HeinenPPAssists: Dominik Simon, John Marino · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
  4. P2 18:58PITJeff CarterPPAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
  5. P3 8:01PITJake GuentzelAssists: Jeff Carter, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
  6. P3 8:31PITEvan RodriguesAssists: Jason Zucker, Mark Friedman · Tip-in, 0.19 xG4–2
  7. P3 13:29FLAAaron EkbladUnassisted · Slap, 0.12 xG4–3
  8. P3 15:07FLAAaron EkbladAssists: Owen Tippett, Jonathan Huberdeau · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–4
  9. OT 1:37FLACarter VerhaegheGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–5
Penalties (15)
  1. P1 3:08PITJake Guentzel: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 6:44FLAFrank Vatrano: High sticking2 min
  3. P1 10:10FLAOwen Tippett: Hooking2 min
  4. P1 16:32PITBrian Dumoulin: Holding2 min
  5. P2 1:05PITKasperi Kapanen: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 6:47PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
  7. P2 7:34FLASam Bennett: Tripping2 min
  8. P2 8:36FLACarter Verhaeghe: Slashing2 min
  9. P2 10:07FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
  10. P2 10:07FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Roughing2 min
  11. P2 17:35FLAFrank Vatrano: High sticking2 min · PPG
  12. P3 0:42PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
  13. P3 15:33FLAAnthony Duclair: Cross checking2 min
  14. P3 18:23FLASergei Bobrovsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  15. P3 18:27PITKasperi Kapanen: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

PIT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
48% to win52% to win
← PIT attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Carter
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

PITFLA
47Shots on goal39
4.6Expected goals3.8
77Shot attempts62
32Faceoffs won38
9Power plays6
12Penalty minutes18
22Hits23
11Blocked shots17
12Giveaways19
6Takeaways11

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward lines

  1. bestZucker – Kapanen – Rodrigues7:52

    xG 0.70–0.04 (94%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0

  2. Carter – Guentzel – Heinen3:02

    xG 0.35–0.02 (95%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0

  3. Blueger – McGinn – Simon4:41

    xG 0.26–0.23 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 0–2

  4. Carter – Rust – Guentzel5:25

    xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestRuhwedel – Friedman6:28

    xG 1.39–0.34 (80%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1

  2. Pettersson – Marino7:57

    xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0

  3. Dumoulin – Marino2:46

    xG 0.07–0.31 (17%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestThornton – Duclair – Lomberg5:09

    xG 0.48–0.01 (97%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0

  2. Hornqvist – Vatrano – Lundell6:00

    xG 0.25–0.33 (44%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0

  3. Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart9:44

    xG 0.20–0.41 (33%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1

  4. Huberdeau – Bennett – Tippett5:48

    xG 0.51–0.74 (41%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestMontour – Kiersted6:38

    xG 0.41–0.27 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0

  2. Montour – Forsling2:33

    xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  3. Weegar – Ekblad10:17

    xG 0.45–0.40 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 3.8 xGPIT 4.6 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAPIT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 98/100 · #33 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.78 · 9 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 3% (winner's lowest chance)
PIT 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +41 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.

FLA winsPIT wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − PIT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).