Wed, Oct 13, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
Winnipeg Jets 1, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 015 | 19 | 010 | 134 |
| ANA | 26 | 110 | 16 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:11ANAKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Isac Lundeström · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 13:20ANAMason McTavishGWGAssists: Isac Lundeström, Jakob Silfverberg · Tip-in, 0.63 xG0–2
- P2 3:48WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Blake Wheeler, Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 13:20ANAAdam HenriquePPAssists: Cam Fowler, Mason McTavish · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 6:20ANARickard RakellPPAssists: Jamie Drysdale, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.22 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 2:11ANAHampus Lindholm: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:55ANAJohn Gibson: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:59ANAJohn Gibson: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:59WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:59ANAJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:20ANAMaxime Comtois: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:25WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:40WPGDylan DeMelo: Kneeing2 min
- P2 15:40ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:26ANAAdam Henrique: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:11WPGNeal Pionk: Holding2 min
- P3 5:48WPGBlake Wheeler: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 9:46WPGAndrew Copp: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 12:07ANADerek Grant: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:46WPGPaul Stastny: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Nash – Svechnikov – Vesalainen5:48
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Lowry – Harkins – Perfetti7:27
xG 0.05–0.19 (20%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Stastny – Connor10:23
xG 0.08–0.32 (19%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Copp – Ehlers – Dubois8:29
xG 0.48–1.02 (32%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Morrissey16:56
xG 0.67–0.38 (64%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Stanley10:59
xG 0.18–0.33 (36%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Dillon – Pionk9:49
xG 0.29–0.94 (23%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Lundeström – McTavish7:09
xG 1.03–0.16 (87%)attempts 5–6goals 2–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Groulx7:15
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Rakell – Zegras7:03
xG 0.08–0.03 (74%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Terry – Comtois7:37
xG 0.21–0.31 (40%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson10:43
xG 1.14–0.32 (78%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Drysdale11:13
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Pateryn – Lindholm3:06
xG 0.00–0.02 (6%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).