Fri, Oct 15, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Vancouver Canucks 5, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 05 | 413 | 015 | 06 | 2 | 539 |
| PHI | 114 | 110 | 29 | 02 | 0 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:15PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Ryan Ellis, Ivan Provorov · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 2:36VANVasily PodkolzinAssists: Tyler Myers, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 4:07VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 9:36VANAlex ChiassonPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–1
- P2 12:17PHICam AtkinsonAssists: Joel Farabee, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 17:07VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Elias Pettersson, Conor Garland · Wrist, 0.34 xG4–2
- P3 17:43PHITravis KonecnyPPAssists: Sean Couturier, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 18:48PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Sean Couturier, Ryan Ellis · Snap, 0.06 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
- 2. VAN Elias Pettersson scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. VAN J.T. Miller scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:12VANTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:13PHITravis Konecny: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:48VANJack Rathbone: Holding2 min
- P2 7:37PHIIvan Provorov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 9:02PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 0:00PHIMax Willman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:36VANOliver Ekman-Larsson: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Pettersson – Hoglander7:45
xG 0.50–0.03 (94%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Dowling – Lammikko2:14
xG 0.15–0.05 (76%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Lammikko – Highmore3:13
xG 0.09–0.00 (98%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Dowling – Lammikko – Podkolzin2:02
xG 0.05–0.09 (36%)attempts 1–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Poolman5:39
xG 0.25–0.06 (81%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Rathbone10:49
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Poolman – Hughes10:58
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Laughton – Lindblom10:20
xG 0.68–0.17 (80%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny12:28
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 20–5goals 0–1
- Brassard – Atkinson – Farabee11:35
xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
- Thompson – Aube-Kubel – Willman7:43
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Provorov17:06
xG 0.56–0.27 (67%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Yandle – Sanheim2:02
xG 0.09–0.35 (20%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Braun – Sanheim13:52
xG 0.22–0.51 (30%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).