Fri, Oct 15, 2021·Honda Center, Anaheim
Minnesota Wild 2, Anaheim Ducks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 015 | 114 | 114 | 243 |
| ANA | 010 | 111 | 08 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:17ANAJakob SilfverbergPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Cam Fowler · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 17:35MINKevin FialaPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 19:52MINMarcus FolignoGWGAssists: Mathew Dumba, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:55ANAHampus Lindholm: Interference2 min
- P1 19:07MINMarcus Foligno: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 19:07MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:07ANAMax Jones: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:07ANAMax Jones: Misconduct10 min
- P1 19:07MINMarcus Foligno: Misconduct10 min
- P2 5:22ANAGreg Pateryn: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:48MINNico Sturm: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:12ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:21MINVictor Rask: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:41ANAJosh Manson: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:01MINJordan Greenway: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:01ANAGreg Pateryn: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Groulx won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm7:22
xG 0.53–0.02 (97%)attempts 17–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Greenway7:09
xG 0.73–0.23 (76%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Rask – Gaudreau – Fiala8:05
xG 0.35–0.16 (69%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov8:32
xG 0.40–0.44 (48%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba15:32
xG 1.19–0.53 (69%)attempts 24–16goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Merrill13:18
xG 0.49–0.11 (82%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Spurgeon11:32
xG 0.72–0.46 (61%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Jones – Comtois6:26
xG 0.29–0.13 (69%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Henrique – Rakell – Zegras10:00
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Lundeström – McTavish6:35
xG 0.01–0.44 (2%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Grant – Deslauriers – Groulx10:36
xG 0.13–0.69 (16%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fowler – Manson13:11
xG 0.20–0.28 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Drysdale14:39
xG 0.73–0.84 (46%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Pateryn11:07
xG 0.16–0.66 (19%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).