Sat, Oct 16, 2021·TD Garden, Boston
Dallas Stars 1, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 19 | 014 | 128 |
| BOS | 117 | 011 | 212 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:38BOSBrad MarchandUnassisted · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 9:15DALLuke GlendeningAssists: Tanner Kero · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 4:43BOSJake DeBruskGWGAssists: Nick Foligno, Erik Haula · Snap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 18:23BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.77 xG1–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:35DALRyan Suter: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:58BOSCraig Smith: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:38DALRyan Suter: Penalty shot holding stick on breakaway0 min
- P1 19:08BOSCharlie McAvoy: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P2 4:51DALJacob Peterson: Interference2 min
- P2 11:29DALJamie Benn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:40BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:30BOSBrad Marchand: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:12BOSNick Foligno: Interference2 min
- P3 14:25DALRoope Hintz: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:25BOSKarson Kuhlman: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 19:21BOSMike Reilly: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Hintz – Peterson4:34
xG 0.56–0.21 (72%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Glendening – Kero – Kiviranta7:12
xG 0.21–0.17 (55%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Peterson3:24
xG 0.08–0.10 (45%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Faksa – Raffl – Gurianov2:32
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lindell – Heiskanen14:41
xG 0.42–0.40 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Hanley11:28
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Suter – Sekera10:56
xG 0.45–0.63 (42%)attempts 4–20goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Coyle – Hall10:13
xG 0.53–0.18 (74%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Foligno – Haula – DeBrusk8:19
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:01
xG 0.41–0.28 (60%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Nosek – Frederic – Kuhlman5:58
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Carlo10:15
xG 0.48–0.02 (96%)attempts 13–1goals 1–0
- Forbort – McAvoy10:50
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – McAvoy3:43
xG 0.19–0.08 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).