Sat, Oct 16, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 3, Montréal Canadiens 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 08 | 19 | 27 | 324 |
| MTL | 05 | 013 | 114 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:59NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–0
- P3 9:24MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Christian Dvorak, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 9:50NYRAlexis LafrenièreGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 19:50NYRKevin RooneyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:32NYRRyan Reaves: Holding2 min
- P1 13:59NYRK'Andre Miller: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:02MTLChris Wideman: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:09MTLChristian Dvorak: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:04MTLMathieu Perreault: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:02MTLChris Wideman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:20NYRAlexis Lafrenière: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestKreider – Zibanejad – Lafrenière8:26
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- McKegg – Goodrow – Blais2:27
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Reaves – Hunt – Rooney3:47
xG 0.11–0.08 (57%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Panarin – Chytil – Kakko4:04
xG 0.04–0.08 (36%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren15:34
xG 0.62–0.56 (53%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Trouba2:04
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Trouba – Miller14:35
xG 0.22–0.50 (31%)attempts 7–11goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Gallagher – Evans8:23
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Anderson – Drouin – Dvorak12:48
xG 0.51–0.35 (59%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Armia – Suzuki – Caufield8:45
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Perreault – Paquette – Lehkonen4:43
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Kulak9:36
xG 0.55–0.15 (79%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Petry – Romanov14:03
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Savard – Chiarot17:00
xG 0.62–0.52 (55%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).