Sat, Oct 16, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 03 | 115 | 12 | 220 |
| PIT | 413 | 18 | 05 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:15PITTeddy BluegerAssists: Brock McGinn, John Marino · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 5:33PITDrew O'ConnorAssists: Dominik Simon, Brian Dumoulin · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 10:59PITBrock McGinnGWGAssists: Drew O'Connor · Snap, 0.11 xG0–3
- P1 11:25PITDanton HeinenAssists: Jake Guentzel, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
- P2 5:00CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Seth Jones, Alex DeBrincat · Slap, 0.09 xG1–4
- P2 17:55PITJason ZuckerAssists: Kasperi Kapanen, Evan Rodrigues · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–5
- P3 15:57CHIKirby DachAssists: Brandon Hagel, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:47CHIKirby Dach: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:51PITZachary Aston-Reese: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:19CHIKirby Dach: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:28PITJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:18PITBrian Boyle: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 15:18CHIJujhar Khaira: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – DeBrincat – Dach9:22
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Khaira – Gaudette – Entwistle5:03
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Toews – Khaira – Kubalik4:05
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – DeBrincat – Borgstrom3:26
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Murphy – Stillman2:28
xG 0.08–0.04 (65%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Murphy – McCabe11:58
xG 0.31–0.36 (46%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- McCabe – Jones2:20
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Simon – O'Connor8:20
xG 0.48–0.07 (86%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese13:34
xG 0.29–0.17 (64%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Zucker – Kapanen – Rodrigues10:50
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Carter – Guentzel – Heinen13:18
xG 0.19–0.26 (43%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino16:52
xG 0.77–0.25 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 3–0
- Ruhwedel – Friedman10:58
xG 0.45–0.04 (91%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin17:14
xG 0.33–0.46 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).