Sat, Oct 16, 2021·Capital One Arena, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Washington Capitals 1 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 04 | 010 | 18 | 12 | 224 |
| WSH | 010 | 18 | 012 | 03 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:51WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Tom Wilson · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 4:23TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Steven Stamkos, Erik Cernak · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- OT 4:45TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:41TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:25TBLRoss Colton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:38WSHCarl Hagelin: Holding2 min
- P3 14:50TBLOndrej Palat: Interference2 min
- OT 1:21TBLMikhail Sergachev: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point13:07
xG 0.82–0.21 (80%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli12:21
xG 0.44–0.09 (83%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Colton11:40
xG 0.58–0.40 (59%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Bellemare – Joseph – Katchouk5:27
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sergachev10:10
xG 0.83–0.16 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Hedman – Cernak5:30
xG 0.44–0.11 (80%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Hedman – Rutta5:34
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Dowd – Hathaway11:42
xG 0.28–0.19 (59%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – Mantha2:12
xG 0.05–0.04 (57%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – Sheary4:36
xG 0.02–0.11 (13%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Oshie – Sheary – Lapierre4:49
xG 0.03–0.16 (17%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Orlov – Jensen16:55
xG 0.31–0.44 (42%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Schultz – van Riemsdyk10:31
xG 0.29–0.50 (37%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry15:38
xG 0.16–1.05 (13%)attempts 7–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).