Sat, Oct 16, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
St. Louis Blues 5, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 25 | 212 | 528 |
| COL | 05 | 116 | 211 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12STLJustin FaulkAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 8:35STLBrayden SchennAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 11:37STLDavid PerronAssists: Brandon Saad, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 14:09COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Nazem Kadri, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 6:51STLDavid PerronPPGWGAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P3 14:36COLTyson JostAssists: J.T. Compher, Mikko Rantanen · Deflected, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 16:18COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Nazem Kadri, Cale Makar · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
- P3 19:40STLRyan O'ReillyENAssists: Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.78 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:40STLBrayden Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:40COLNazem Kadri: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:07STLRobert Bortuzzo: Interference2 min
- P3 1:31STLIvan Barbashev: Cross checking2 min
- P3 4:55COLSampo Ranta: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:45COLAndre Burakovsky: Holding2 min
- P3 14:04STLTorey Krug: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Jost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Buchnevich – Kyrou9:03
xG 0.56–0.35 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
- Neal – Tarasenko – Thomas7:37
xG 0.12–0.24 (34%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Bozak – Barbashev – Neighbours5:22
xG 0.03–0.17 (16%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Perron – O'Reilly – Saad12:50
xG 0.09–0.36 (20%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Walman9:49
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug16:19
xG 0.59–0.86 (41%)attempts 13–21goals 2–1
- Scandella – Parayko18:55
xG 0.33–1.02 (25%)attempts 14–24goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Rantanen8:30
xG 0.47–0.20 (71%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Helm – Megna – Jost2:02
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Helm – Jost – O'Connor3:54
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirard – Makar13:09
xG 1.08–0.31 (77%)attempts 23–10goals 1–2
- Johnson – Murray3:35
xG 0.28–0.07 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Murray – Girard3:18
xG 0.07–0.04 (63%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).