Sat, Oct 16, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Calgary Flames 2, Edmonton Oilers 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 015 | 118 | 114 | 247 |
| EDM | 215 | 19 | 29 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:08EDMDerek RyanAssists: Warren Foegele, Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 17:29EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 5:33EDMConnor McDavidPPGWGAssists: Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 9:19CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Dillon Dube, Juuso Välimäki · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 5:03CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 5:29EDMJesse PuljujarviAssists: Cody Ceci, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 18:23EDMConnor McDavidENAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.78 xG2–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:57CGYGlenn Gawdin: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:33CGYRasmus Andersson: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:33CGYRasmus Andersson: Elbowing2 min
- P1 15:21EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:22CGYNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:22EDMZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:39EDMZach Hyman: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 2:24EDMConnor McDavid: Holding2 min
- P2 4:12CGYMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:16EDMKailer Yamamoto: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:12EDMKailer Yamamoto: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Nugent-Hopkins
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk10:24
xG 0.49–0.18 (73%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Monahan – Mangiapane – Dube4:42
xG 0.29–0.17 (62%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Lewis – Lucic – Backlund5:21
xG 0.10–0.46 (18%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Välimäki9:50
xG 0.72–0.09 (88%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Kylington2:04
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson14:32
xG 0.66–0.57 (54%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Foegele – Ryan9:07
xG 0.50–0.43 (54%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
- Turris – Perlini – McLeod3:31
xG 0.03–0.14 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Yamamoto10:36
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi11:01
xG 0.32–0.76 (29%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKoekkoek – Bouchard8:52
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Nurse – Bouchard2:07
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Keith – Ceci15:59
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 10–17goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).