Sat, Oct 16, 2021·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Minnesota Wild 3, Los Angeles Kings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 012 | 312 | 06 | 330 |
| LAK | 011 | 111 | 19 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:23LAKViktor ArvidssonPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
- P2 6:17MINFrederick GaudreauAssists: Kevin Fiala, Dmitry Kulikov · Slap, 0.22 xG1–1
- P2 11:55MINVictor RaskAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 16:52MINRyan HartmanGWGAssists: Marcus Foligno, Jordan Greenway · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 7:28LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Drew Doughty, Jonathan Quick · Deflected, 0.03 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:13MINJon Merrill: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:47LAKViktor Arvidsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:29MINMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:29MINMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:29LAKAlex Iafallo: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:46MINMarcus Foligno: Holding2 min
- P3 11:27MINNick Bjugstad: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestRask – Gaudreau – Fiala9:00
xG 0.44–0.21 (67%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov11:36
xG 0.44–0.34 (56%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Greenway9:16
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Bjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm11:21
xG 0.78–0.98 (44%)attempts 8–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba15:31
xG 0.96–0.47 (67%)attempts 16–15goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Spurgeon14:48
xG 0.65–0.39 (62%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Merrill12:53
xG 0.48–0.40 (54%)attempts 10–11goals 2–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Kempe – Iafallo10:58
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Arvidsson13:24
xG 0.63–0.62 (51%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Tkachev – Vilardi – Kaliyev6:30
xG 0.01–0.02 (21%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Moore – Kupari – Lizotte8:18
xG 0.50–0.70 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Walker14:11
xG 0.94–0.58 (62%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Edler – Doughty2:45
xG 0.03–0.03 (50%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson12:54
xG 0.37–0.70 (35%)attempts 12–12goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).