Sat, Oct 16, 2021·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Winnipeg Jets 3, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 110 | 16 | 17 | 323 |
| SJS | 06 | 211 | 214 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:20WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Brenden Dillon, Neal Pionk · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 1:09WPGAndrew CoppSHAssists: Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 3:38SJSAndrew CoglianoSHAssists: Logan Couture, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 13:17SJSJasper WeatherbyPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Kevin Labanc · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 3:25SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Jasper Weatherby, William Eklund · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 5:02SJSRudolfs BalcersGWGAssists: Timo Meier, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–4
- P3 13:28WPGJansen HarkinsAssists: Logan Stanley, Josh Morrissey · Slap, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 18:29SJSKevin Labanc: Holding2 min
- P1 19:37WPGNeal Pionk: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:23SJSWilliam Eklund: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:44WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:44SJSJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:44WPGAdam Lowry: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:59WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 1:38WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:02SJSTomas Hertl: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:02WPGNeal Pionk: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:02WPGMark Scheifele: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:38SJSKevin Labanc: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Ehlers – Dubois11:35
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Lowry – Harkins – Vesalainen2:10
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Nash – Harkins – Vesalainen3:10
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Lowry – Perfetti4:56
xG 0.02–0.02 (57%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Stanley9:54
xG 0.18–0.08 (71%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Schmidt – Morrissey12:44
xG 0.08–0.38 (18%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk13:59
xG 0.46–1.31 (26%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Bonino – Nieto – Labanc9:11
xG 0.12–0.09 (59%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Pederson – Weatherby5:10
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Couture – Meier – Dahlen9:23
xG 0.41–0.49 (45%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Hertl – Balcers – Eklund8:38
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Middleton12:34
xG 0.89–0.43 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Burns – Ferraro14:52
xG 0.49–0.15 (76%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Simek11:15
xG 0.15–0.53 (22%)attempts 3–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).