Sun, Oct 17, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Dallas Stars 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 14 | 017 | 113 | 234 |
| OTT | 110 | 212 | 05 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:34DALMichael RafflAssists: Alexander Radulov, Radek Faksa · Snap, 0.27 xG1–0
- P1 5:24OTTNick PaulAssists: Connor Brown, Artem Zub · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 9:20OTTChris TierneyPPAssists: Shane Pinto, Connor Brown · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 19:00OTTChris TierneyPPGWGAssists: Zachary Sanford, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 14:17DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Michael Raffl, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:52OTTJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:52DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:25OTTShane Pinto: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:12OTTTim Stützle: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:23DALMichael Raffl: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 18:33DALAndrej Sekera: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Faksa – Raffl5:57
xG 0.40–0.17 (70%)attempts 13–1goals 1–0
- Glendening – Kero – Kiviranta5:05
xG 0.05–0.02 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Glendening – Gurianov – Kero2:29
xG 0.03–0.01 (73%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Peterson2:51
xG 0.07–0.18 (29%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Hanley10:17
xG 0.74–0.43 (63%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Suter – Sekera9:20
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen11:14
xG 0.14–0.29 (32%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Paul – Pinto13:54
xG 0.68–0.10 (87%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Norris – Batherson – Stützle12:32
xG 0.37–0.18 (67%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Ennis – Tierney – Sanford4:28
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Shaw – Formenton – Kelly2:33
xG 0.06–0.06 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Brown12:06
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zaitsev2:13
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Zaitsev13:16
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).