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Ice Lab

Mon, Oct 18, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

New York Rangers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.

TOR winsNYR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:41Shot by Kreider, saved by Campbell
  3. P1 1:09Goodrow: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Muzzin, Tavares, Holl, Nylander, Bunting · NYR Goodrow, Trouba, Panarin, Chytil, Miller

  4. P1 1:53Shot by Matthews, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  5. P1 2:04Shot by Matthews, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  6. P1 4:52Shot by Rooney, saved by Campbell
  7. P1 6:34Shot by Trouba, saved by Campbell
  8. P1 6:53Shot by Kampf, saved by Shesterkin
  9. P1 8:56Shot by Bunting, saved by Shesterkin
  10. P1 10:02Shot by Ritchie, saved by Shesterkin
  11. P1 10:20Shot by Chytil, saved by Campbell
  12. P1 11:14Shot by Hunt, saved by Campbell
  13. P1 11:30Shot by Kreider, saved by Campbell
  14. P1 12:02Shot by Kampf, saved by Shesterkin
  15. P1 12:32Shot by Gauthier, saved by Campbell
  16. P1 13:01Shot by Panarin, saved by Campbell
  17. P1 13:20Shot by Goodrow, saved by Campbell
  18. P1 13:49Goal by Zibanejad, unassisted+14 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Muzzin, Tavares, Holl, Nylander, Bunting · NYR Reaves, Zibanejad, Hunt, Fox, Lindgren

  19. P1 14:27Shot by Bunting, saved by Shesterkin
  20. P1 16:22Shot by Simmonds, saved by Shesterkin
  21. P1 16:33Trouba: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Spezza, Simmonds, Engvall, Dermott, Sandin · NYR Goodrow, Trouba, Panarin, Chytil, Lundkvist

  22. P1 17:12Shot by Rielly, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  23. P1 17:42Shot by Nylander, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  24. P1 18:22Shot by Sandin, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  25. P1 19:11Shot by Kase, saved by Shesterkin
  26. P1 0:00Period end
  27. P2 0:00Period start
  28. P2 1:36Goal by Bunting (Rielly, Tavares)+18 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Bunting, Dermott · NYR Nemeth, Goodrow, Panarin, Chytil, Lundkvist

  29. P2 2:00Dermott: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Kerfoot, Kase, Dermott, Kampf, Sandin · NYR Nemeth, Blais, Rooney, Gauthier, Lundkvist

  30. P2 3:09Shot by Blais, saved by Campbell4v5
  31. P2 6:49Shot by Simmonds, saved by Shesterkin
  32. P2 7:54Shot by Engvall, saved by Shesterkin
  33. P2 8:21Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Shesterkin
  34. P2 9:03Shot by Dermott, saved by Shesterkin
  35. P2 9:05Shot by Matthews, saved by Shesterkin
  36. P2 9:14Shot by Matthews, saved by Shesterkin
  37. P2 9:53Shot by Tavares, saved by Shesterkin
  38. P2 9:54Tavares: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Ritchie, Dermott, Marner, Matthews, Sandin · NYR Reaves, Trouba, Hunt, Rooney, Miller

  39. P2 13:06Shot by Engvall, saved by Shesterkin
  40. P2 13:35Shot by McKegg, saved by Campbell
  41. P2 14:08Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Shesterkin
  42. P2 14:58Shot by Nylander, saved by Shesterkin
  43. P2 15:47Shot by Matthews, saved by Shesterkin
  44. P2 15:52Shot by Rielly, saved by Shesterkin
  45. P2 16:39Shot by Simmonds, saved by Shesterkin
  46. P2 16:42Gauthier: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Spezza, Simmonds, Engvall, Dermott, Sandin · NYR Trouba, Blais, Rooney, Gauthier, Miller

  47. P2 16:51Shot by Rielly, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  48. P2 17:02Shot by Marner, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  49. P2 17:29Shot by Rielly, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  50. P2 0:00Period end
  51. P3 0:00Period start
  52. P3 0:33Shot by Kreider, saved by Campbell
  53. P3 1:10Shot by Kase, saved by Shesterkin
  54. P3 1:59Shot by Sandin, saved by Shesterkin
  55. P3 2:12Shot by Matthews, saved by Shesterkin
  56. P3 4:35Shot by Bunting, saved by Shesterkin
  57. P3 4:41Shot by Tavares, saved by Shesterkin
  58. P3 5:01Shot by Tavares, saved by Shesterkin
  59. P3 5:07Shot by Bunting, saved by Shesterkin
  60. P3 8:30Shot by Blais, saved by Campbell
  61. P3 8:47Shot by Lindgren, saved by Campbell
  62. P3 11:46Muzzin: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Spezza, Muzzin, Holl, Nylander, Matthews · NYR Kreider, Zibanejad, Panarin, Fox, Lundkvist

  63. P3 12:24Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Campbell4v5
  64. P3 14:52Shot by Simmonds, saved by Shesterkin
  65. P3 15:28Shot by Nemeth, saved by Campbell
  66. P3 16:05Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Campbell
  67. P3 18:21Shot by Kreider, saved by Campbell
  68. P3 18:33Shot by Kase, saved by Shesterkin
  69. P3 0:00Period end
  70. OT 0:00Period start
  71. OT 1:08Shot by Trouba, saved by Campbell3v3
  72. OT 1:17Shot by Nylander, saved by Shesterkin3v3
  73. OT 2:36Shot by Blais, saved by Campbell3v3
  74. OT 2:55Shot by Matthews, saved by Shesterkin3v3
  75. OT 3:16Shot by Matthews, saved by Shesterkin3v3
  76. OT 3:44Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Campbell3v3
  77. OT 3:48Goal by Panarin (Zibanejad)3v3+53 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Rielly, Bunting · NYR Zibanejad, Panarin, Fox

  78. OT 3:48Period end4v4
  79. OT 3:48Final3v3