Mon, Oct 18, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Seattle Kraken 1, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 08 | 18 | 08 | 124 |
| PHI | 316 | 25 | 16 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:18PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Travis Konecny · Slap, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 12:12PHITravis KonecnyGWGAssists: Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 14:36PHIDerick BrassardAssists: Justin Braun, Travis Sanheim · Slap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 7:10PHIRyan EllisAssists: Derick Brassard, Joel Farabee · Snap, 0.12 xG0–4
- P2 8:49PHIJustin BraunAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Oskar Lindblom · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–5
- P2 17:14SEACarson SoucyAssists: Jared McCann, Joonas Donskoi · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–5
- P3 5:25PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Cam Atkinson, Derick Brassard · Snap, 0.17 xG1–6
Penalties (17)
- P1 19:44SEAAdam Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:57PHINick Seeler: Interference2 min
- P2 8:49SEANathan Bastian: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:49PHIClaude Giroux: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:00SEAJamie Oleksiak: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:00SEAJamie Oleksiak: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:00PHINicolas Aube-Kubel: Interference2 min
- P2 12:00PHINick Seeler: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:00SEANathan Bastian: Misconduct10 min
- P2 12:00PHINate Thompson: Misconduct10 min
- P2 18:31PHITravis Konecny: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:12SEAKole Lind: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:11SEANathan Bastian: Misconduct10 min
- P3 9:11SEANathan Bastian: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:11PHINate Thompson: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:11PHINate Thompson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:20PHIMax Willman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – McCann – Appleton5:10
xG 0.26–0.18 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 1–1
- Donato – Tanev – Geekie10:48
xG 0.43–0.56 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Donskoi – McCann – Lind3:22
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Eberle – Schwartz – Wennberg11:19
xG 0.54–0.78 (41%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFleury – Lauzon11:58
xG 0.93–0.42 (69%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Larsson – Soucy2:14
xG 0.38–0.04 (90%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Larsson – Lauzon2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny10:24
xG 1.05–0.44 (70%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
- Thompson – Aube-Kubel – Willman6:46
xG 0.16–0.01 (92%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Brassard – Atkinson – Farabee7:53
xG 0.52–0.59 (47%)attempts 6–6goals 3–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Lindblom9:06
xG 0.35–0.44 (45%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Sanheim13:40
xG 0.64–0.49 (56%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- Sanheim – Provorov2:10
xG 0.29–0.22 (57%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Yandle – Seeler10:58
xG 0.88–0.81 (52%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).