Mon, Oct 18, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 3, Calgary Flames 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 17 | 09 | 18 | 13 | 327 |
| CGY | 116 | 114 | 012 | 01 | 243 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:43CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 15:56ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 3:52CGYElias LindholmAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 12:55ANARickard RakellAssists: Adam Henrique, Josh Mahura · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- OT 3:26ANAJamie DrysdaleGWGAssists: Troy Terry · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:44CGYMilan Lucic: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:34ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:03CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 16:34ANAMason McTavish: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:26ANANicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:26CGYMilan Lucic: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:39ANAJosh Manson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Getzlaf – Terry – Comtois9:24
xG 0.48–0.54 (47%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Deslauriers – Jones – Groulx4:26
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Silfverberg – Jones – Lundeström2:08
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Lundeström – McTavish3:42
xG 0.25–0.52 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson11:14
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Manson – Mahura2:08
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Fowler3:24
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMonahan – Mangiapane – Dube11:04
xG 1.12–0.27 (81%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk11:54
xG 0.77–0.46 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Lewis – Ritchie – Gawdin7:38
xG 0.34–0.08 (81%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Lewis – Coleman – Ritchie2:15
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Välimäki14:46
xG 1.54–0.31 (83%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Hanifin – Andersson16:53
xG 0.93–0.60 (61%)attempts 23–15goals 2–0
- Tanev – Zadorov16:16
xG 0.48–0.73 (40%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).