Tue, Oct 19, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Vancouver Canucks 2, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 28 | 010 | 016 | 234 |
| BUF | 111 | 116 | 316 | 543 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:57VANBo HorvatAssists: Tanner Pearson, Conor Garland · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 8:22BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 16:01VANJustin DowlingAssists: Luke Schenn, J.T. Miller · Snap, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 17:37BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Kyle Okposo, Dylan Cozens · Tip-in, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 3:33BUFJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Colin Miller, Dylan Cozens · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 3:56BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Will Butcher, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–4
- P3 17:05BUFRasmus AsplundENAssists: Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.47 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P2 5:56BUFKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:29VANTanner Pearson: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 1:01BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:40VANBrock Boeser: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:14BUFRasmus Dahlin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Ruotsalainen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Dowling – Miller – Podkolzin8:50
xG 0.85–0.83 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Boeser – Pettersson – Hoglander11:31
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Lammikko – Highmore6:10
xG 0.01–0.36 (4%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
- Pearson – Horvat – Garland9:20
xG 0.23–0.61 (28%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Rathbone3:59
xG 0.08–0.02 (79%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ekman-Larsson – Poolman17:09
xG 0.34–0.55 (38%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Schenn – Rathbone10:19
xG 0.53–0.88 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Asplund – Thompson11:20
xG 1.32–0.47 (74%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Okposo – Eakin – Girgensons8:28
xG 0.34–0.03 (93%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Eakin – Hinostroza – Caggiula2:03
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Hinostroza – Cozens10:55
xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestButcher – Dahlin13:15
xG 1.02–0.56 (65%)attempts 17–9goals 2–1
- Butcher – Bryson2:13
xG 0.46–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Miller – Bryson11:12
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).