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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 19, 2021·Prudential Center, Newark

Seattle Kraken 2, New Jersey Devils 4

Away

Seattle Kraken

2

Final

Home

New Jersey Devils

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.

NJD winsSEA wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
SEA0711319229
NJD21411514433

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 5:02NJDDawson MercerAssists: Tomas Tatar, Ryan Graves · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
  2. P1 6:42NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Jack Hughes, Ryan Graves · Backhand, 0.25 xG0–2
  3. P2 10:05SEARiley SheahanAssists: Adam Larsson, Vince Dunn · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
  4. P2 14:48NJDJimmy VeseyGWGAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Colton White · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
  5. P3 14:41SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Mark Giordano, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
  6. P3 19:40NJDPavel ZachaENAssists: Michael McLeod, Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.74 xG2–4
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 2:27NJDMichael McLeod: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 2:27SEABrandon Tanev: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 16:05NJDColton White: Holding2 min
  4. P1 19:05SEAAdam Larsson: Cross checking2 min
  5. P2 1:55SEAJeremy Lauzon: Fighting5 min
  6. P2 1:55NJDMason Geertsen: Fighting5 min
  7. P2 1:55SEAJeremy Lauzon: Misconduct10 min
  8. P2 1:55NJDMason Geertsen: Misconduct10 min
  9. P2 6:03NJDYegor Sharangovich: Tripping2 min
  10. P2 7:50NJDMichael McLeod: Hooking2 min
  11. P2 11:22SEACarson Soucy: Tripping2 min
  12. P2 17:52NJDJonas Siegenthaler: Fighting5 min
  13. P2 17:52SEARyan Donato: Instigator2 min
  14. P2 17:52SEARyan Donato: Fighting5 min
  15. P2 17:52SEARyan Donato: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 13:22NJDPavel Zacha: Slashing2 min · PPG
  17. P3 13:30NJDDamon Severson: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

SEA00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0NJD
48% to win52% to win
← SEA attackNJD attack →
  1. P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Wennberg
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

SEANJD
29Shots on goal33
3.2Expected goals5.3
60Shot attempts56
40Faceoffs won38
5Power plays3
41Penalty minutes35
12Hits16
11Blocked shots17
10Giveaways11
15Takeaways16

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.

Seattle Kraken

Forward lines

  1. bestSheahan – Appleton – Bastian5:18

    xG 0.86–0.24 (78%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0

  2. Donskoi – Wennberg – Bastian2:02

    xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  3. Sheahan – Donato – Appleton2:13

    xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

  4. Donskoi – Wennberg – McCann5:49

    xG 0.04–0.35 (10%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestLarsson – Dunn2:13

    xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0

  2. Soucy – Lauzon4:21

    xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0

  3. Giordano – Soucy8:15

    xG 0.33–0.41 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0

New Jersey Devils

Forward lines

  1. bestZacha – Bratt – Hischier10:39

    xG 1.03–0.14 (88%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0

  2. Kuokkanen – Sharangovich – Hughes3:41

    xG 0.55–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0

  3. McLeod – Kuokkanen – Sharangovich2:11

    xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0

  4. Tatar – Johnsson – Mercer7:51

    xG 0.79–0.56 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestSeverson – White8:30

    xG 1.20–0.43 (73%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0

  2. Hamilton – Graves13:40

    xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0

  3. Subban – Siegenthaler14:59

    xG 1.20–0.90 (57%)attempts 13–19goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

NJD 5.3 xGSEA 3.2 xG
0123456P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

NJDSEA

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.

Excitement 43/100 · #794 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.11 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
SEA 100%5050%50NJD 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 80% of the time.

NJD winsSEA wins

Simulated goal difference (NJD − SEA), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).