Tue, Oct 19, 2021·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 5, Minnesota Wild 6 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 211 | 110 | 25 | 04 | 530 |
| MIN | 213 | 111 | 218 | 12 | 644 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:48WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Andrew Copp, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 4:41MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Mathew Dumba, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 8:17WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Andrew Copp · Slap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P1 18:40MINJoel Eriksson EkPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 5:49WPGJosh MorrisseyPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 16:59MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Alex Goligoski · Deflected, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 4:19WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Kyle Connor, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
- P3 6:37WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Mark Scheifele, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–3
- P3 15:02MINMarcus FolignoPPAssists: Alex Goligoski, Frederick Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–4
- P3 19:01MINJoel Eriksson EkAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–5
- OT 3:30MINJoel Eriksson EkPPGWGAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.28 xG5–6
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:37MINMathew Dumba: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:46WPGJosh Morrissey: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:42MINKirill Kaprizov: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:51WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:40MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:40WPGBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:13MINRyan Hartman: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 9:38WPGBrenden Dillon: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:45MINRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:43MINNick Bjugstad: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 9:19MINAlex Goligoski: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:19WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:37MINKirill Kaprizov: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:44WPGNeal Pionk: Slashing2 min · PPG
- OT 2:48WPGJosh Morrissey: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Scheifele – Copp – Connor10:40
xG 0.57–0.61 (48%)attempts 14–17goals 3–1
- Stastny – Ehlers – Dubois10:18
xG 0.13–0.34 (27%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
- Lowry – Harkins – Vesalainen8:47
xG 0.22–0.58 (27%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Stanley6:52
xG 0.08–0.03 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk12:22
xG 0.29–0.67 (30%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Morrissey13:02
xG 0.41–0.84 (33%)attempts 12–20goals 2–2
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov10:21
xG 0.57–0.10 (85%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Foligno – Hartman – Greenway7:18
xG 0.30–0.12 (71%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – Duhaime – Sturm4:15
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Rask – Gaudreau – Fiala6:59
xG 0.25–0.19 (58%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba17:20
xG 1.05–0.30 (78%)attempts 27–12goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Spurgeon8:51
xG 0.42–0.26 (62%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Dumba3:15
xG 0.18–0.04 (80%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).