Tue, Oct 19, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Anaheim Ducks 5, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 210 | 212 | 114 | 536 |
| EDM | 311 | 018 | 38 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:07ANAKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Trevor Zegras, Adam Henrique · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 8:47EDMZack KassianAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Warren Foegele · Slap, 0.31 xG1–1
- P1 14:52EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Jesse Puljujarvi · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
- P1 15:07ANASam SteelAssists: Isac Lundeström, Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P1 19:29EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.23 xG2–3
- P2 8:46ANANicolas DeslauriersAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Troy Terry · Snap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P2 9:59ANASam SteelAssists: Isac Lundeström, Jakob Silfverberg · Backhand, 0.23 xG4–3
- P3 5:27EDMZack KassianPPAssists: Evan Bouchard, Darnell Nurse · Tip-in, 0.18 xG4–4
- P3 10:30EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Jesse Puljujarvi, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 18:59EDMLeon DraisaitlENGWGAssists: Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.78 xG4–6
- P3 19:41ANAKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Troy Terry, Jakob Silfverberg · Slap, 0.09 xG5–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:05ANACam Fowler: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 19:05ANARickard Rakell: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:39ANAKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:19EDMKyle Turris: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:13ANAHampus Lindholm: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 14:02EDMJesse Puljujarvi: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:36ANAKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:02ANAAdam Henrique: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Zegras
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Rakell – Zegras13:54
xG 1.08–0.79 (58%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Grant – Deslauriers – Groulx5:52
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Steel – Lundeström9:42
xG 0.46–0.73 (38%)attempts 10–8goals 2–0
- Getzlaf – Terry – Comtois9:52
xG 0.37–0.74 (33%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Manson10:41
xG 0.80–0.15 (85%)attempts 20–4goals 2–0
- Shattenkirk – Fowler2:07
xG 0.40–0.06 (87%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Mahura13:01
xG 0.53–0.82 (39%)attempts 7–15goals 2–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKassian – Foegele – Ryan10:02
xG 0.98–0.13 (88%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Draisaitl – McDavid – Puljujarvi12:54
xG 0.91–0.78 (54%)attempts 15–14goals 2–1
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – Perlini2:59
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Turris – Shore – Perlini4:47
xG 0.19–0.47 (29%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Ceci15:29
xG 1.13–0.37 (75%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Nurse – Bouchard9:29
xG 0.88–0.45 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Koekkoek – Bouchard5:30
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).