Wed, Oct 20, 2021·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 3, Philadelphia Flyers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 110 | 218 | 012 | 340 |
| PHI | 27 | 110 | 38 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:08PHICam AtkinsonAssists: Derick Brassard, Justin Braun · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 16:48BOSKarson KuhlmanAssists: Trent Frederic, Tomas Nosek · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 19:51PHIJoel FarabeePPAssists: Derick Brassard, Ryan Ellis · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 1:58PHIScott LaughtonAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Keith Yandle · Snap, 0.27 xG1–3
- P2 8:38BOSTaylor HallAssists: Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 19:00BOSBrad MarchandAssists: David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 0:58PHICam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
- P3 11:17PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 19:01PHISean CouturierENAssists: Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.59 xG3–6
Penalties (3)
- P1 13:52PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Interference2 min
- P1 18:25BOSCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 17:43BOSBrandon Carlo: Roughing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak14:23
xG 0.78–0.12 (87%)attempts 22–7goals 1–1
- Smith – Coyle – Hall11:09
xG 0.64–0.34 (65%)attempts 17–11goals 1–2
- Haula – DeBrusk – Kuhlman3:17
xG 0.27–0.04 (86%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Smith – Hall – Nosek2:19
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGrzelcyk – McAvoy16:31
xG 1.00–0.16 (86%)attempts 22–12goals 2–0
- Reilly – Clifton5:25
xG 0.32–0.16 (66%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Reilly – McAvoy2:22
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Atkinson – Farabee10:46
xG 0.65–0.31 (67%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Lindblom11:40
xG 0.57–0.58 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
- Giroux – Couturier – Konecny15:15
xG 0.07–0.31 (19%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Thompson – Aube-Kubel – MacEwen7:12
xG 0.02–0.56 (3%)attempts 3–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Yandle – Braun14:00
xG 0.57–0.62 (48%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Ellis – Provorov18:55
xG 0.15–0.33 (31%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim17:54
xG 0.60–1.37 (31%)attempts 15–27goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).