Thu, Oct 21, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
San Jose Sharks 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 08 | 212 | 04 | 224 |
| OTT | 17 | 013 | 011 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:06OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Artem Zub · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 1:58SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Brent Burns, Timo Meier · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 14:36SJSKevin LabancPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, William Eklund · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:41SJSRadim Simek: Holding2 min
- P1 11:59OTTThomas Chabot: Interference2 min
- P1 19:37SJSNick Bonino: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:50SJSMario Ferraro: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:50OTTChris Tierney: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:16OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:38OTTNick Paul: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:13SJSTomas Hertl: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:13OTTTyler Ennis: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:58SJSBrent Burns: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Balcers – Eklund6:57
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bonino – Nieto – Labanc8:48
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Couture – Meier – Dahlen10:15
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Pederson – Weatherby7:22
xG 0.05–0.28 (14%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Burns – Middleton2:36
xG 0.06–0.04 (59%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Middleton12:03
xG 0.33–0.45 (43%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Burns – Ferraro14:37
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNorris – Batherson – Tkachuk13:28
xG 0.83–0.15 (85%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Ennis – Shaw – Sanford2:38
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Brown – Paul – Stützle4:17
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Ennis – Tierney – Sanford2:34
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub17:48
xG 0.87–0.39 (69%)attempts 26–12goals 1–0
- Holden – Brown10:37
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Holden – Chabot2:17
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).