Thu, Oct 21, 2021·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Colorado Avalanche 1, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 111 | 012 | 08 | 131 |
| FLA | 16 | 223 | 19 | 438 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:32FLASam ReinhartAssists: Mason Marchment, Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 19:06COLMikko RantanenAssists: Samuel Girard, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 9:04FLASam BennettPPGWGAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 19:13FLACarter VerhaegheUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 18:47FLAAnton LundellENAssists: Mason Marchment, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.72 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:15FLABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:09COLLogan O'Connor: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:44COLCale Makar: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:26FLASam Bennett: Interference2 min
- P2 8:00COLMikko Rantanen: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P2 9:14FLAMason Marchment: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:52COLErik Johnson: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:30COLGabriel Landeskog: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Maltsev8:42
xG 0.86–0.17 (84%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Helm – Jost – O'Connor7:02
xG 0.20–0.09 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Compher – Kaut – Ranta5:05
xG 0.23–0.32 (42%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen12:48
xG 0.42–0.57 (43%)attempts 8–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Girard8:43
xG 0.79–0.46 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Murray10:01
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Makar – Byram13:04
xG 0.40–0.48 (46%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHornqvist – Vatrano – Luostarinen8:18
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Marchment – Lundell9:01
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov9:13
xG 0.28–0.50 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Huberdeau – Bennett – Tippett9:24
xG 0.16–0.87 (16%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestConnauton – Montour11:38
xG 1.21–0.57 (68%)attempts 27–15goals 0–0
- Weegar – Ekblad14:57
xG 0.66–0.05 (93%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Gudas – Forsling14:17
xG 0.19–1.21 (14%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).