Sat, Oct 23, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 1, Montréal Canadiens 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 14 | 015 | 08 | 127 |
| MTL | 28 | 313 | 13 | 624 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:25DETDylan LarkinPPAssists: Moritz Seider · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 14:10MTLBen ChiarotAssists: Jonathan Drouin, David Savard · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 16:15MTLMike HoffmanPPGWGAssists: Sami Niku, Christian Dvorak · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 3:17MTLChristian DvorakAssists: Sami Niku, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 7:45MTLMathieu PerreaultUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–4
- P2 9:59MTLMathieu PerreaultAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Cole Caufield · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–5
- P3 13:16MTLMathieu PerreaultENAssists: Ben Chiarot · Wrist, 0.78 xG1–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:18MTLBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 11:18DETGustav Lindstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:38DETDanny DeKeyser: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:52DETFilip Zadina: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:47MTLArtturi Lehkonen: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:27MTLChristian Dvorak: Interference2 min
- P3 6:16DETGivani Smith: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rasmussen won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestLarkin – Fabbri – Raymond9:53
xG 0.70–0.37 (65%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Erne – Suter – Zadina10:57
xG 0.40–0.41 (50%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Gagner – Namestnikov – Rasmussen8:50
xG 0.33–0.38 (46%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Rowney – Stephens – Smith8:10
xG 0.07–0.33 (17%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Seider17:20
xG 0.67–0.55 (55%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- DeKeyser – Lindstrom13:29
xG 0.53–0.69 (43%)attempts 12–20goals 0–2
- Staal – Stecher12:08
xG 0.18–0.44 (29%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPerreault – Toffoli – Caufield6:34
xG 0.67–0.24 (73%)attempts 17–3goals 1–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Dvorak12:10
xG 0.66–0.47 (58%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Evans9:18
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Gallagher – Suzuki9:28
xG 0.07–0.28 (21%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Niku11:41
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 20–11goals 3–0
- Savard – Romanov14:46
xG 0.69–0.64 (52%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot16:44
xG 0.38–0.51 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).