Sat, Oct 23, 2021·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 211 | 113 | 29 | 533 |
| CBJ | 07 | 112 | 09 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:11CARJesper FastAssists: Jordan Staal · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 13:35CARVincent TrocheckPPGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Tony DeAngelo · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 7:19CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–1
- P2 15:57CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Brett Pesce, Jesperi Kotkaniemi · Deflected, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 7:05CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 16:13CARVincent TrocheckAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.15 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 13:28CBJVladislav Gavrikov: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 6:45CARTony DeAngelo: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:08CARBrett Pesce: Holding2 min
- P2 10:47CBJAndrew Peeke: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:05CBJJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:26CBJGustav Nyquist: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:43CARTeuvo Teravainen: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:09CARIan Cole: Holding2 min
- P3 18:27CBJJake Bean: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Roslovic
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Necas – Svechnikov9:19
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast9:10
xG 0.42–0.20 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Kotkaniemi8:43
xG 0.77–0.57 (57%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Stepan – Martinook – Lorentz7:50
xG 0.10–0.29 (26%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce13:57
xG 0.92–0.31 (75%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Slavin – DeAngelo11:26
xG 0.58–0.43 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Cole – DeAngelo4:06
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Hofmann – Kuraly – Robinson7:36
xG 0.15–0.18 (46%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Bjorkstrand – Sillinger12:26
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Texier – Chinakhov7:12
xG 0.37–0.51 (42%)attempts 7–5goals 0–2
- Voracek – Jenner – Laine9:07
xG 0.47–0.62 (43%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Bean4:39
xG 0.20–0.07 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Werenski – Boqvist3:07
xG 0.12–0.06 (68%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Bean – Boqvist2:06
xG 0.10–0.04 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).