Sat, Oct 23, 2021·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Los Angeles Kings 3, St. Louis Blues 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 113 | 012 | 210 | 335 |
| STL | 213 | 314 | 213 | 740 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:29LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 14:36STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Torey Krug, Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 18:47STLIvan BarbashevSHAssists: Marco Scandella · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 0:45STLDavid PerronAssists: Torey Krug, Klim Kostin · Deflected, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 2:37STLJake NeighboursGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Kyle Clifford · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P2 7:06STLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, David Perron · Snap, 0.22 xG1–5
- P3 0:38STLJames NealPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–6
- P3 1:33LAKDustin BrownAssists: Sean Walker, Viktor Arvidsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–6
- P3 5:53LAKCarl GrundstromAssists: Alexander Edler, Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–6
- P3 11:40STLDavid PerronPPAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.13 xG3–7
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:46LAKPhillip Danault: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:26LAKGabriel Vilardi: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:07STLColton Parayko: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:09LAKAlexander Edler: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:24LAKRasmus Kupari: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:38STLTorey Krug: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:12LAKViktor Arvidsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:15LAKPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:11STLColton Parayko: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:03LAKAlexander Edler: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 12:32STLTyler Bozak: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Vilardi – Kaliyev4:50
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Danault – Kempe – Iafallo3:41
xG 0.45–0.30 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Danault – Grundstrom – Moore4:15
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Brown – Kopitar – Arvidsson7:42
xG 0.43–0.36 (54%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Walker10:47
xG 1.08–0.45 (71%)attempts 16–11goals 2–1
- Edler – Anderson4:35
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Maatta – Roy4:03
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Neal – Schenn – Kyrou9:20
xG 0.40–0.43 (48%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Bozak – Clifford – Neighbours9:47
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
- Perron – O'Reilly – Kostin11:32
xG 0.52–0.65 (44%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Barbashev – Thomas7:52
xG 0.39–0.82 (32%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Scandella – Parayko16:24
xG 0.89–0.94 (49%)attempts 19–18goals 1–0
- Bortuzzo – Walman9:41
xG 0.34–0.46 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Faulk – Krug12:02
xG 0.49–0.84 (37%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).